TOKYO – (JCN Newswire) – A group of strategy consultants at
Azabu Insights, Tokyo, Japan have been analyzing the coronavirus outbreak since
its onset. We are continually looking for insights to share in the hope that
they can help people or companies through this difficult time.
On March 13th an Azabu Insights survey showed that only
sixty-four percent of commuters in central Tokyo were wearing masks. While no
February survey was conducted, we believed that masks usage was significantly
higher in February when the early cases of coronavirus were detected in Japan.
Our researchers concluded that the reason mask usage was down was that supplies
had run out, “masks have been sold out at the convenience stores for at
least a week now and shipments from Amazon are expected to take ten days to two
weeks.”
Another consideration could have been that the spring had
come, young Tokyoites felt they had largely beaten the coronavirus and it was
time to get out. At the time the Prime Minister was still optimistic the
Olympics might happen this year. Whatever the reason, mask-usage was almost
definitely lower than it had been a few weeks earlier.
As the coronavirus situation continues to evolve globally
and has also received renewed focus in Japan, Azabu Insights refreshed this
survey data on April 2nd. The data showed there has been a significant uptick
in mask usage with eighty-six percent of people surveyed now wearing masks.
Drivers for Increase in Usage: Change in Tone from the Top?
While the drivers for the increase are not altogether clear
there are a number of factors that we look to for guidance.
There has been a distinct change in tone from the top. Prime
Minister Abe, Tokyo Mayor Koike as well as many politicians are now wearing
masks during parliament and press conferences. The 2020 Olympics have been
delayed, which may have freed the government to make more direct statements.
They have conducted press conferences with the MHLW urging people to abstain
from nightlife, such as bars and karaoke. The MHLW has noted that nightlife has
been a source of infection clusters in Japan. Mayor Koike has raised the
possibility of a lockdown of Tokyo.
Looking at supply, masks still seem perpetually sold out at
the convenience stores and there is a continuing backlog on Amazon. That said,
the government had made a commitment to increasing the supply. People seem to
have gotten their hands on supply somehow and we also expect that many people
have started re-using masks across multiple days. Note we do not believe the
increase in usage is a result of utilizing hand-made masks, which continue to
be less than five percent of masks observed.
The West is Catching the Mask Craze
Also during this period there has been a significant change
in opinion in western countries with a large number of important figures
recommending them, starting with an opinion piece by researchers at Yale on
March 19th. Former Harvard School of Public Health dean, Harvey Fineberg also
agreed, saying that he will be wearing a face-covering himself.
After a couple of weeks of media debate, a recent CNN
article, pronounced, “Asia may have been right about coronavirus and face
masks, and the rest of the world is coming around.”
Meanwhile health officials also seem to have come around.
The CDC and White House expressed on Thursday that they may change the
recommendation to wear masks shortly. While the WHO has reiterated its stance
that people should not use masks, the consensus seems to be that this guidance
may be to protect vital stores for hospitals.
In the United States there has been a boom in grandmothers
making handmade masks – so much so that there is now a two week back order for
elastic on Amazon. In addition major apparel companies like H&M (Sweden),
New Balance (Massachusetts, USA) and others who have stepped up to begin making
masks.
We see all of this as very positive for the West. But we
expect it has had little effect on usage in Japan. Instead we think increasing
supply, more people getting and holding on to their masks, more positive
leadership from the government, and more concern by the citizenry has caused
the increase.
Women Are Playing It Slightly Safer Than Men
It appears that women are playing it slightly safer than
men. Our data showed that on March 13th, sixty-eight percent of women were
wearing masks, compared to only sixty percent of men. In our April 2nd data, we
found that ninety percent of women were wearing masks and eighty-two percent of
men.
[Image #2] Percentage of Women and Men Wearing Masks on Mar
13, and on Apr 2.
Methodology
For all surveys they were conducted by assessing the number
of commuters of each gender passing through a central Tokyo train station over
a 90 minute period. For both the March and April surveys the weather conditions
were remarkably similar, reflecting an unseasonably warm winter, so this is not
seen as a significant factor.
Conclusions
In our previous research we reviewed several scientific studies
that showed masks having a positive impact on the minimization of spread of
infectious diseases. We are heartened to see the change in attitude in many
western countries as they become supportive of masks as a tool that regular
people can employ in helping to fight this pandemic. We are also happy to see
Japan increasing its usage again, regardless of the reason.
Our team has been impressed with how fast opinions have
changed in the west and how quickly people have produced novel solutions such
as the entrepreneurial grandmas with their sewing machines. We are also
impressed that so many companies are stepping up to offer their resources in
creative ways to help beat this virus.
As we recommended in our internal article three weeks ago,
we would like to see a more sustainable solution in fashionable, washable masks
produced in Japan. If each person had three or four of these ready to go in
their sock drawer, we could avoid future shortages of the “throw
away” type masks.
On that note, the Prime Minister proposed distributing cloth
masks to the general populace a few hours after we wrote the draft of this
article. While some have argued that he needs to take more drastic steps to control
the disaster, we think it is a step in the right direction.
Please send comments to: info@azabuinsights.com
About Azabu Insights
Azabu Insights is a boutique strategic consulting company
based in Azabu Juban, Tokyo, Japan. Our teams work collaboratively with clients
to build strategies that lead to positive change. Our multilingual team members
have top tier academic backgrounds and deep industry experience that we
leverage to provide first class, fully engaged, strategic consulting. Core
specializations include life sciences, finance, electronics, automotives,
aerospace and other industries. For more information contact:
info@azabuinsights.com.
